LULA

LULA — The High-Stakes Game of Emerging Market Bonds

Lula was a classic board game from the 1970s, much loved (and sometimes hated!) by all the family. We're thrilled to bring it back to life in 2026 for today's tech-savvy generation.

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Sovereign Debt Trading Simulation

Economic engine based on Bassa & Cont (2025) — "Dynamics of Sovereign Debt"

You manage a $100M emerging-market sovereign bond fund.

Each turn = 1 quarter. Allocate capital across 4 sovereign issuers.
Each country has a default probability — the chance it fails to pay its debts this quarter. Low (<1%) means safe; rising (1-10%) means trouble; high (>10%) means get out.
Fund costs: 2%/year (trading, custody, liquidity).
Win: $200M | Lose: >40% drawdown or all 4 default.

Default Probability Model

Bassa-ContBorrowing constraint
Sudden crises LogisticClassic credit risk
Gradual risk ArellanoStrategic default
Unpredictable

KEY CONCEPTS

Default Probability

The chance a country fails to pay its debts this quarter. This is your most important signal: low (<1%) is safe, 1-10% is trouble, >10% means danger.

Spread

The extra yield (in basis points) a country pays over the risk-free rate. Higher spread = higher return but higher risk.

Credit Rating (IG / HY)

Investment Grade (IG) = safer. High Yield (HY) = riskier. A downgrade from IG to HY triggers credit rationing in the Bassa-Cont model.

Regime (Green / Yellow / Red)

Green = stable, Yellow = stressed, Red = crisis.

Fiscal Policy (BAU / Austerity)

Governments switch to austerity when debt gets dangerous — cutting spending to stabilise debt.

LULA

KEY CONCEPTS

GAME OVER

LULA